摘要： 特朗普2.0政府在前期的基础上，将关键矿产供应链武器化提升为核心地缘战略，试图通过去中游依赖和强化下游杠杆，推动关键矿产供应链“去中国化”。然而，这一战略实际上内嵌了三重自我消解的张力。在国内层面，国家强力介入市场所产生的安全溢价向下游产业和消费者传导，经济压力转化为政治分歧，侵蚀武器化的国内基础。在联盟层面，“美国优先”的逻辑持续透支盟友间的信任资本，激活盟友的战略自主意识，导致其配合流于表面。在全球层面，极限施压倒逼中国加速供应链自主，也强化了第三方资源国的资源民族主义，客观上形成对美国排他性供应链的合围之势，进一步推高美国重构供应链的成本与不确定性。因此，美国关键矿产供应链武器化在短期内虽然能形成对华施压的声势并加速部分供应链重组，但从长期来看，这一战略的效果注定会被其引发的国内、联盟与全球层面的反制所抵消。

Abstract: In the Trump 2.0 era, building on earlier policies, the U.S. administration has elevated the weaponization of the critical mineral supply chain to a core geopolitical strategy, attempting to promote the “de-Sinification” of critical mineral supply chains by reducing midstream dependence and strengthening downstream leverage. However, this strategy inherently embeds three self-undermining tensions. Thus, although the weaponization of the U.S. critical mineral supply chain may generate short-term momentum to pressure China and accelerate partial supply chain reorganization, its long-term effect is destined to be offset by the counterforces it provokes at the domestic, alliance, and global levels.

Key words: Trump 2.0, critical minerals, supply chain, weaponization, China-U.S. competition