摘要： 在新一轮科技革命和产业变革的浪潮中，未来产业已经成为促进经济高质量发展的重要增长极。未来产业的内涵与外延为何？它们在未来是否会动态演进？需要引起学界重视。对此，可按照“0—1—N”的演进思路，围绕未来产业的生成性、前瞻性和成长性来界定其“未来内涵”与动态外延。用“无中生有”和“有中育新”两种模式比较未来产业不同阶段的驱动机制和现实瓶颈，前者依托国家战略科技力量实现原始创新突破，后者在存量产业结构中实现内生更新。因此，未来产业的发展离不开制度激励与市场选择的共同作用，国家力量在“无中生有”模式中发挥源头性支撑作用，市场机制在“有中育新”模式的应用扩散与产业再造中形成有效反馈。完善国家统筹与增强存量产业吸收能力，是我国未来产业可持续发展的关键路径，由此形成的政策启示可为我国布局未来产业、实现科技自立自强提供理论支撑与实践指引。

关键词: 未来产业, 创新生态, 未来内涵, 动态外延, 产业升级

Abstract: In the wave of the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation, future industries have become an important growth pole for promoting high-quality economic development. What are the current connotations and extensions of future industries, and will they dynamically evolve in the future? Following the “0–1–N” evolution approach, it defines the “future connotations” and dynamic extensions of future industries around their generative, forward-looking, and growth characteristics. By comparing two models—“creating something out of nothing” and “fostering innovation within the existing”—the driving mechanisms and practical bottlenecks at different stages are analyzed. The former mainly relies on national strategic scientific and technological power to achieve breakthroughs in original innovation, while the latter achieves endogenous renewal within the structure of existing industries.

Key words: future industries, innovation ecosystem, future connotation, dynamic extension, industrial upgrading